Cross-Strait Conflict and the Risk of Horizontal Escalation

China’s increased assertiveness throughout the Indo-Pacific, its growing military capabilities, and Xi Jinping’s statements on the importance of unification with Taiwan have raised concern about conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Analysts have focused primarily on the likelihood of direct U.S. military involvement in the defense of Taiwan and the potential for “vertical” escalation of a confrontation into an acute conflict. Much less attention has been devoted to understanding the risk of a confrontation in the Taiwan Strait that arises from events beyond the immediate vicinity of Taiwan or, conversely, the potential “horizontal” escalation of a cross-Strait conflict to other parts of the Indo-Pacific region. The project assesses the risk of both inward and outward horizontal escalation involving the Taiwan Strait. The project will bring together experts in the U.S. and Asia for meetings and workshops, and it will culminate in a paper that lays out a framework for thinking about the nexus between Taiwan contingencies and horizontal escalation.

This project is made possible by the generous support of Carnegie Corporation of New York.