This project was made possible in part by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
The Middle East continues to command the world’s attention and pose challenges to the United States. A devastating war grinds on between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in the Gaza Strip, where UN officials have warned of a humanitarian catastrophe. Iran continues to build its nuclear program while taking an increasingly confrontational stance toward Israel and projecting its influence across the region. Iran also supports Hamas, Lebanon-based Hezbollah, militia groups in Iraq and Syria, and the Yemen-based Houthi rebels, whose operations in the Red Sea have disrupted international shipping channels.
The Israel-Hamas war has reignited concerns about instability in the Middle East and drawn the United States into direct confrontation with what Iran calls the “axis of resistance.” In January 2024, the Iran-backed, Iraq-based Kata’ib Hezbollah killed three U.S. service members near the Jordan-Syria border. Two months later, Iran directly attacked Israel for the first time since the establishment of the Islamic Republic forty-five years ago; the United States and the United Kingdom participated in Israel’s defense strategy alongside regional powers. Israel retaliated with a strike on a military base in central Iran before both sides stepped back from the brink. However, tensions remain hot across the Middle East as the war in Gaza continues.
This spillover from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has complicated efforts in recent years to wind down U.S. military involvement in the region; the United States has deployed extra military forces to try to limit the moves of Iran’s proxies, and tens of thousands of U.S. troops and contractors remain in the region. American officials have also stepped up efforts to facilitate aid for Palestinians through the construction of a floating pier off the coast of Gaza.
The October 7 Hamas attack and ensuing war in Gaza have also stymied U.S. efforts to broker a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Beyond the immediate crisis, the White House is making a diplomatic push to revive negotiations aimed at achieving a two-state solution, but prospects for a lasting end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict still appear remote.
The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas has become the focal point of Biden’s Middle East policy. He has proposed a cease-fire and hostage-release deal while renewing calls for a Israel-Saudi Arabia normalization deal and a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Trump’s approach to the Middle East has been defined by strong support for Israel and Saudi Arabia, and a confrontational stance toward Iran. He backed away from long-standing bipartisan consensus by saying he wasn’t interested in a separate Palestinian state.
The Palestinian militant group struggled to govern the Gaza Strip before launching a surprise attack on Israel in 2023. Now facing Israel’s military campaign to destroy it, Hamas’s future is in doubt, as is Gaza’s.
International calls for a cease-fire are mounting as the humanitarian situation in Gaza deteriorates rapidly amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas.
Israel has long been the leading recipient of U.S. foreign aid, including military support. That aid has come under heightened scrutiny amid Israel’s monthslong war to eliminate Hamas.