Modi's State Visit: Prospects for the U.S.-India Relationship and Navigating the Global Order

The U.S.-India partnership has been transformed from a tense relationship into one of expanding cooperation across sectors. Although many, particularly in the United States, had hoped for a close partnership for years, few would have predicted the extent of the transformation in the relationship. India and the United States now collaborate on security challenges, defense, intelligence consultations, military exercises, health, disaster preparedness, emerging technologies, and even education. Both countries have concerns about China’s rise, contributing to a shared sense of urgency about the global order if China were to become the next superpower.

However, important challenges to the relationship remain. The United States worries about India’s commitment to the norms of the current global order and its perceived reluctance to rock the geopolitical boat. India’s reliance on Russian military imports and oil (Russia has displaced Iraq as India’s top oil supplier) and its reluctance to unambiguously condemn Russia in the Ukraine war remain thorns. India’s position in the event of an escalation or even conflict in the Taiwan Strait is also ambiguous. The idea of mutual defense, a key plank of many of the United States’ bilateral partnerships, is unthinkable for the Indian government.

The state of Indian democracy and reports of the Indian government violating the civil liberties of minorities and journalists are another cause for U.S. concern. While the Biden administration is unlikely to make any public criticism—as made evident in Modi’s upcoming state visit—members of Congress may not have such inhibitions. Modi is set to address a joint meeting of Congress on June 22.

From India’s perspective, the Indian government was anxious, if not publicly critical, about the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and what seemed to be a pivot away from important issues, such as Pakistan-sponsored cross-border terrorism. India also worries about the divisions in U.S. politics and what next year’s presidential election could portend for the United States’ performance on the world stage and its commitment to its partners. U.S. immigration policy also poses a problem. Legal pathways of immigration for Indian citizens, a highly skilled source of labor for the United States, have run into myriad issues, including absurdly long wait times for visas. The U.S.-India trade relationship is also narrowly focused and hampered by Indian protectionism.

Overall, India sees itself as having a large stake in the success of the U.S.-India relationship—a drastic change from its past attitude—and the United States sees India as one of its most valuable partners today. This trajectory is unlikely to change in the near future.

For other viewpoints on Modi's state visit from C. Raja Mohan, Mukesh Aghi, Farwa Aamer, and Meera Gopal, please see the original piece in The Diplomat.