North Korean Nuclear Negotiations

North Korea ratifies the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), a multilateral agreement whose dozens of signatories have committed to halting the spread of nuclear weapons and technology and promoting peaceful cooperation on nuclear energy. North Korea built its first nuclear facilities in the early 1980s.

The United States announces it will withdraw roughly one hundred nuclear weapons from South Korea as part of the original Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. The agreement between President George H.W. Bush and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, known as the START treaty, limits the deployment of offensive nuclear weapons abroad.

The governments of North and South Korea agree to “not test, manufacture, produce, receive, possess, store, deploy, or use nuclear weapons,” as well as ban nuclear reprocessing and uranium enrichment facilities. The treaty also commits the two Koreas to use nuclear energy only for peaceful purposes.

Amid escalating tensions on the peninsula, Jimmy Carter becomes the first former U.S. president to visit North Korea, where he meets with Kim Il-sung, the country’s founder. Carter’s trip paves the way for a bilateral deal between the United States and North Korea. Kim dies weeks later and is succeeded by his son, Kim Jong-il.

The United States, Japan, and South Korea establish the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) to implement the 1994 Agreed Framework and oversee the financing and construction of the two light-water reactors. KEDO breaks ground in August 1997.

North Korea agrees to suspend testing of long-range missiles following talks with the United States; in exchange, the United States eases economic sanctions for the first time since the beginning of the Korean War in 1950.

South Korean President Kim Dae-jung meets with Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang for the first summit between Korean leaders since the peninsula’s division five decades prior. The rapprochement results in a number of joint commercial and cultural projects, including construction of an industrial complex and the reunification of families separated during the war. Following the summit, the United States eases sanctions further, allowing some trade and investment.

President George W. Bush takes office in 2001 and pursues a harder line toward Pyongyang, characterizing North Korea, along with Iraq and Iran, as part of an “axis of evil” and imposing new sanctions. In April 2002, Bush states in a memorandum that the United States will not certify North Korea’s compliance with the 1994 Agreed Framework, due to a rocket test and missile-related transfers to Iran.

Pyongyang admits to running a secret uranium-enrichment program to power nuclear weapons, a violation of the Agreed Framework, the NPT, and agreements between North and South Korea. By December, the country says it will reactivate its nuclear plant in Yongbyon. The following month, North Korea withdraws from the NPT after disrupting IAEA monitoring equipment and expelling inspectors.

Amid an increasingly tense climate, South and North Korea, China, Japan, Russia, and the United States launch a diplomatic initiative known as the Six Party Talks. There are no breakthroughs during the first round of talks, in Beijing, where North Korea denies having a uranium-enrichment program.

North Korea carries out an underground nuclear test with an explosion yield estimated around one to two kilotons. In July, North Korea tested seven short-, medium-, and long-range ballistic missiles. These tests prompt the UN Security Council to issue unanimous condemnations and trade sanctions.

North Korea commits to halting operations at its Yongbyon nuclear facilities in exchange for fifty thousand tons of oil. The deal is part of an action plan agreed to by the Six Party members to implement the September 2005 statement.

Lee Myung-bak is elected president of South Korea. As the leader of a conservative government, Lee shifts from his predecessors’ push for reconciliation to exert more pressure on North Korea to denuclearize. He takes office a few months after the second inter-Korean summit, held between the North’s Kim Jong-il and South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun.

President Barack Obama takes office signaling a willingness to revive the Six Party Talks, but these efforts are initially rebuffed by North Korea, which launches a rocket believed to be a modified version of its long-range ballistic missile. It also ejects international monitors from its nuclear facilities in April and the following month tests a second nuclear device, which carries a yield of two to eight kilotons. In December, Obama administration officials hold their first bilateral meetings with their North Korean counterparts.

Pyongyang reveals its new centrifuge for uranium enrichment, which was built secretively and swiftly, as well as a light-water reactor under construction, suggesting that despite sanctions, the regime is committed to advancing its weapons program. The news comes amid escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula after forty-six South Koreans were killed when a patrol ship, the Cheonan, was torpedoed and then sank in March. The South blames North Korea for the attack and cuts economic ties. The North denies its involvement and later fires artillery at the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong.

Kim Jong-il dies after seventeen years in power and is succeeded by his son Kim Jong-un. The not-yet-thirty-year-old Kim is relatively unknown, and foreign observers anticipate a political struggle until he begins to assert power.

Following a meeting between the United States and North Korea in Beijing, North Korea commits to suspend its uranium enrichment operations in Yongbyon, invite IAEA monitors, and carry out a moratorium on long-range missile and nuclear testing. In exchange, the United States is to provide tons of food aid. The deal falls apart after North Korea launches a rocket and displays road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles at a military parade.

Diplomacy stalls for several years as the Obama administration opts for “strategic patience,” in which the United States and its partners ratchet up sanctions in hopes that the regime will return to the negotiating table. Meanwhile, North Korea carries out nuclear tests in February 2013 and again in January and September 2016. Its ballistic missile capabilities improve, with more tests of short-, medium-, and long-range missiles carried out under Kim Jong-un than under his father and grandfather combined.

President Donald Trump is inaugurated in January 2017 and shifts course in U.S. policy toward North Korea. In September, Pyongyang conducts its sixth nuclear test, which it claims is a hydrogen bomb and raises international alarm due to the yield of its explosion. Trump redesignates North Korea a state sponsor of terrorism in November. U.S.-North Korean relations during Trump’s first year are volatile as Pyongyang boasts it can reach U.S. soil with nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles and the Trump administration threatens a military strike.

Trump and Kim’s second summit, held in Vietnam, collapses after the leaders disagree over sanctions relief and denuclearization. Trump says Kim agreed to dismantle the nuclear and fissile material production facilities at Yongbyon in exchange for complete sanctions relief, but the U.S. president wanted more substantial steps on denuclearization and verification. North Korean officials dispute Trump’s account, saying Kim demanded only partial sanctions relief. Both leaders leave Vietnam early, without signing a planned joint statement, but indicate talks will continue. Trump says they parted on “friendly” terms, while North Korea’s foreign ministry warns it will not change its position.

North Korean state media announces that the country will “shut down all contact” with South Korea after it called on Seoul to prevent activists from sending anti-Pyongyang leaflets across the border. Days later, North Korea destroys a joint liaison office set up in 2018 to improve inter-Korean ties. North Korea briefly restores communication lines in August 2021 but shuts them down again after South Korea participates in military exercises with the United States. Communication lines are restored again that October.
 

Several months after U.S. President Joe Biden takes office, his administration completes a review of policy toward North Korea. The White House adopts a middle-ground approach between Obama’s “strategic patience” and Trump’s “grand bargain,” which promised full sanctions relief in exchange for complete denuclearization. U.S. officials say they are ready to restart talks without preconditions, but Pyongyang doesn’t express interest.

North Korea test-fires an intermediate-range ballistic missile in what is believed to be the country’s most powerful launch since late 2017. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres says the test is a violation of the moratorium. Washington urges the UN Security Council to impose more sanctions on Pyongyang, but Beijing and Moscow block the proposal. North Korea performs more than seventy ballistic and cruise missile tests by the end of 2022, the most tests conducted in any single year.

Known as the Hwasong-18, the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) has a potential maximum range of 15,000 km (9,320 miles), which could allow it to reach anywhere on the U.S. mainland. Its use of solid fuel allows the ICBM to be stored for extended periods without degrading. North Korea successfully launches a third consecutive test of the Hwasong-18 in December 2023 in response to what it labels as mounting hostility by the United States. The test triggers condemnation from the United States, Japan, and South Korea, while China shows little urgency, calling for increased dialogue with North Korea.

Seoul attributes the decision to suspend the CMA to a series of provocations by Pyongyang, which included the failed launch of a military spy satellite and the release of more than seven hundred balloons carrying trash and feces across the border. The lifting of restrictions allows South Korea to resume all military operations along the Military Demarcation Line, including deploying propaganda broadcasts on loud speakers near the inter-Korean border.